UFC 200 is right around the corner, and while there are shows before the July mega-event, it isn’t too early to start talking about the show. Over the next few weeks and months, we’ll be looking at all of the fights in one way or another. To start, let’s take a gander at the rematch of Frankie Edgar and Jose Aldo.
The two first met when Aldo defended his UFC Featherweight Championships in February of 2013. Aldo came out on top, with Edgar another notch on his belt during his record setting 9 consecutive featherweight title defenses. It wasn’t a fight without controversy as it went down to the wire and Edgar more than proved himself the equal to Aldo. Controversy or no, it was entertaining and a rematch was destined.
Since that time, Aldo had a legendary feud with Conor McGregor, lost his title last December, and now returns to the Octagon seeking personal redemption. Edgar has rattled off 5 straight wins, culminating in a brilliant first round KO of Chad Mendes the night before Aldo dropped his belt. With reigning UFC Featherweight Champion McGregor in the midst of his journey to different weight classes (not to mention his public feud with the UFC), the rematch will technically be for an interim title. However, there’s a strong chance that McGregor vacates the belt, making this fight unofficially-officially for the UFC Featherweight Championship. There are no two better men to determine who truly is the best featherweight on earth.
How each man once again finds themselves with UFC gold is the story. The first fight was mostly contested on the feet, as Aldo’s legendary takedown defense was on full display. This took away much of Edgar’s greatest strength: the ability to confuse opponents as to what he’ll do next, as his mixing up of takedowns and boxing is second to none. By using his sprawl and leg kicks and jab, Aldo controlled the distance for most of the fight and forced Edgar to fight on his terms. A similar strategy is to be expected from Aldo this time around. Should Aldo keep the fight on the feet, he can use his world-class striking to eventually win by decision. Frankly, neither fighter has a great chance of a finish, as the one-punch KO Aldo suffered at the hands of McGregor was a first and Edgar has never been one to display power himself (though Chad Mendes may disagree). It’s difficult to ask Aldo to do much differently this time around. Last time, he beat Edgar using a more modern day version of sprawl and brawl, so why change what’s working? Again, a finish seems unlikely, simply because of each man’s durability and style but an Aldo decision is in the cards.
Edgar will inevitably try to get Aldo to the ground. While the Brazilian is a world-class submission artist, off his back he’s shown at times to be passive. Edgar often steals rounds with his takedowns, and attempted to do so in the first fight, only to be frustrated. While diving in on Aldo is a fool’s errand, a more concerted effort to ground the striking machine is Edgar’s surest path to victory. To do this, though, Edgar will need to make changes in his approach. He trains with another brilliant striker in Edson Barboza, one of the few men who can replicate Aldo’s style. Edgar’s inability to effectively stop leg kicks hurt him in the first fight. Using Barboza as a dummy, and focusing on specifically leg kicks could pay dividends.
Expecting either man to blitz the other is wrong. The fight has all the makings of another classic, as the two match up so well, and are still at their physical and mental peaks, that Aldo v Edgar 2 at UFC 200 should deliver and then some. While Aldo winning by decision is a safe bet, the safest is that the fight will be great.
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